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The purpose of this paper is to discuss and demonstrate “best practices” for creating quantitative behavioural investigative advice (i.e. statements to assist police with psychological and behavioural aspects of investigations) where complex statistical modelling is not available.

Using a sample of 361 serial stranger sexual offenses and a cross-validation approach, the paper demonstrates prediction of offender characteristics using base rates and using Bayes’ Theorem. The paper predicts four dichotomous offender characteristic variables, first using simple base rates, then using Bayes’ Theorem with 16 categorical crime scene variable predictors.

Both methods consistently predict better than chance. By incorporating more information, analyses based on Bayes’ Theorem (74.6 per cent accurate) predict with 11.1 per cent more accuracy overall than analyses based on base rates (63.5 per cent accurate), and provide improved advising estimates in line with best practices.

The study demonstrates how useful predictions of offender characteristics can be acquired from crime information without large (i.e. >500 cases) data sets or “trained” statistical models. Advising statements are constructed for discussion, and results are discussed in terms of the pragmatic usefulness of the methods for police investigations.

GLASGOW was later by about one hundred and thirty years than some of the Scotch towns in establishing a printing press. Three hundred years ago, though Glasgow contained a University with men of great literary activity, including amongst others Zachary Boyd, there does not appear to have been sufficient printing work to induce anyone to establish a printing press. St. Andrews and Aberdeen were both notable for the books they produced, before Glasgow even attempted any printing.

THE Reference Department of Paisley Central Library today occupies the room which was the original Public Library built in 1870 and opened to the public in April 1871. Since that date two extensions to the building have taken place. The first, in 1882, provided a separate room for both Reference and Lending libraries; the second, opened in 1938, provided a new Children's Department. Together with the original cost of the building, these extensions were entirely financed by Sir Peter Coats, James Coats of Auchendrane and Daniel Coats respectively. The people of Paisley indeed owe much to this one family, whose generosity was great. They not only provided the capital required but continued to donate many useful and often extremely valuable works of reference over the many years that followed. In 1975 Paisley Library was incorporated in the new Renfrew District library service.

This chapter considers how observers can effectively and safely engage with unethical organizational behaviors. Engagement methods need to be aligned with the situational contexts of specific cases. Micro-level individual, meso-level organizational, and macro-level environmental contextual obstacles to effective and safe engagement are considered. Five types of observer ethics engagement methods are considered in the context of specific cases and contextual obstacles. Engagement methods considered are as follows: (1) evocation and framing of dialogic engagement as consistent with the identity, vision, and values of the organization; (2) win–win incentive and ethics networking methods; (3) internal and external whistle-blowing methods; (4) if the observer is in a position of organizational power, top-down forcing methods; and (5) linking of observed unethical behaviors with strong external social movements.

AN older librarian, we think, looking at the Annual Report of the Library Association, which is the principal publication of June, must almost rub his eyes in bewilderment at the recent progress made. In the outer world of libraries, that part which the public sees, there are symptoms, and actual signs, of development; new branch libraries, such as those at Sheffield, at Croydon, and at Dartford, are portents of a sort—pleasant substitutes, and most effective ones, for the larger, orthodox (in size at least) branches such as Yardley Wood, Crossgates, Firth Park and Leith. Greater development must be a problem for a few years to come, as every librarian must acknowledge. It is in the development of librarianship and bibliology that this record of the L.A. is so significant. The bare fact that the Centenary Year sees the L.A. with a membership rapidly approaching ten thousand and an income of £36,000 seems almost incredible. Even more so is the fact, not quite so pleasing, that by £347 this income proved insufficient; but, on reflection, that, too, is a sign of activity. The Association has almost ceased what was once thought to be its main pre‐occupation; its own organization, or, as one of our writers called it, “the moving about of its domestic furniture.” It is now deeply concerned with international librarianship, an attitude which in no small measure it owes to Mr. H. M. Cashmore and to Mr. Welsford's flair as host at Chaucer House; its gradual adjustment of its benefits, including the education ones, so that they appeal to other than public librarians, as they formerly did, and to such an extent that over one thousand special and university librarians are grouped in it; the immense, for it is that, educational and examination scheme, which from the accounts appears to cost: the administration about £1,900 more than the candidates' fees provide; its extending publishing business, now costing in all £12,150 a year, but bringing in returns more valuable than the substantial sales would suggest, and the quite remarkable library, information, and research work. The Association has become a large business, influencing the life of every librarian and energizing most of the work now done in libraries. The Report has a general acknowledgment paragraph recording the debt owed to the chairmen of committees. It is a modest tribute to a group of men who give great labours to our interests. To be the chairman of a Library Association Committee today is to be a leader and hard‐driven worker. We owe them much. And this does not reduce our admiration for the manner in which the official staff of the Association do their work.

Although Google had a stellar performance in Web search, many of its other services, such as Google Video, were less successful. This case describes how YouTube came to dominate the video market for user-generated content (UGC), while Google Video tried various entry strategies and ultimately failed, ending with the acquisition of YouTube. It also reviews the various competitors in the UGC market, chronicles the entry of established and new players in the area of professionally generated content (PGC), and outlines the key challenges related to monetizing the acquisition of YouTube for Google.

The case discusses when and how to enter winner-take-all markets characterized by very strong network externalities. It focuses on the strategies of new entrants vs. those of incumbents in adjacent industries that seek to leverage their resources and skills. Further, it sheds light on how new industries are created, how convergence is changing competitive forces, how important it is to be a first or late mover in new markets, and how successful entrants may struggle to achieve profitability.

The purpose of this paper is to present and explore the deleterious socioeconomic consequence of six interrelated trends upon the sustainability of the personal portion of America’s social contract.

Neoclassical economic growth theory is used to frame the discussion of the trends in significant variables. This paper is a general review and draws on widely available data and academic insights of scholars.

This detailed examination leads to rejection of ergodicity and concludes that the existing social contract is unrealizable and unsustainable in present form for all but a shrinking minority of citizens.

The conclusion is robust but tentative since the trends reviewed are not fixed and may deviate from existing trend lines given undetermined government policies and unforeseeable technological developments.

The paper examines the origins and implications of six adverse systemic trends, highlighting the fact that existing policy prescriptions lack understanding of – and/or scale to comprehensively address – a growing existential threat to the Liberal Tradition’s entrenched social contract.

There is no argument among serious researchers that a mongoloid stock first colonized the New World from Asia. Nor is there controversy about the fact that these continental pioneers used the Bering Land Bridge that then connected the Asian Far East with Alaska.– Gerald F. Shields, et al.American Journal of Genetics (1992)

This paper aims to make the case for continued opportunity for high levels of human well-being under descent conditions characterised by declining economic throughput and socio-political complexity.

Relationships between assumptions about human well-being formed within a modern industrial context, the guiding narratives attending these, and the broader cultural influence of ideas from the evolutionary sciences are examined. Alternative ways of making sense of these relationships are explored. The experiences of societies guided by cultural narratives based on different premises to those most influential in industrial societies are reviewed for their implications for human well-being under descent conditions.

Human experiences of well-being are principally a function of the sources of meaning and associated narratives by which members of a culture make sense of their situation, as these determine the nature of the material and energetic conditions required to live well. Under descent conditions, the narrative of progress that has supported viable societies during the 300-year period of industrial expansion is unlikely to continue serving humanity well. Collective participation in the renewal of guiding cultural narratives is a primary target for efforts to provide continued opportunities for high quality of life to all members of humanity.

The findings point towards specific characteristics of cultural sense-making narratives that may support viable human societies under descent conditions.

By moving beyond the default assumption that descent automatically implies decline in human well-being, a barrier may be lowered to more open and mature society-wide engagement in conversations about the present human predicament and effective ways of responding to it.

New connections are identified between perspectives based on biological evolutionary theory and the continued influence of the idea of progress in establishing default assumptions about prospects for human well-being under descent conditions. Experiences of non-industrial societies are taken as the basis for identifying opportunities for human well-being under far more modest material and energetic conditions than those available to the portion of humanity that presently enjoys benefits of industrial development that outweigh the attendant costs.